In response to Michael Arrington: I Saw The Future Of Social Networking The Other Day
My friend and colleague Riyaad Minty “Mobile guru” had a fit about Michael Arrington’s post “I Saw The Future of Social Networking The Other Day” on Techcrunch.com.
Here is a summary of what is happening:
Michael Arrington is suggesting:
- Mobile applications cannot go mainstream due to tech limitations - browser based networks don’t leverage the power of the mobile device, and client based applications are blocked by service providers and handset limitations
- Predicting mobile-social usage will increase in few years from now
- Once mobile social-app goes mainstream - it will go way beyond facebook
- iPhone might be the kick-start for such mainstream for mobiles
Well, and here is my intake about all of this:
- Huh? Why would we want a new medium to socialize? If social-mobile goes mainstream, then we will have a new generation of insecure people with no real social skills who are totally dependent on their gadgets. and is that what we really want?
- Nokia “Sensor” tried to jump into social-wheel bandwagon few years ago and I don’t recall there was huge success in that area due to “????”. And they used bluetooth technology for meet-up. So what will make iPhone app a better service? Interface?
- It is all about critical mass. If Facebook was able to convince 2% of its users to socialize through mobile, definitely things for mobile will take off from there despite technical limitation.
- I think future attempts to bring social networking to mobile will definitely be more successful. Operators will be less control-freaks in regards of traffic flow, and not to mention, the new technologies “i.e wimax” will make things smoother for users to connect to social platforms.
And here is what the expert in Mobile World says:
What a bunch of hogg wash….
Honestly… People who are not experts in the mobile world like to sit on the fence and assume they know everything to do with the internet…..
The concept he talks about below, existed a few years ago. In fact it was quite successful previously, I actually remember seeing something like this working on the 1st generation of 2.5G mobile phones, that was in late 2002!!!!! We were actually approached to launch this type of system, based on LBS (or triangulation) in 2002 by a few companies. Which by the way still has may problems i.e if you in a building you may be picking up signal from a base station that is 10km away, which means your location will not be al that accurate all the time…. An there is no way its accurate as the Nokia GPS usage as their sportstracker app has demonstrated….
So in response, its not tech limitations at all, neither is anything to do with network infrastructure (which can push out some serioulsy high data speeds)… The problem is 1) with the networks themselves and the high data charges, the walled garden approach is what has, till today, seriously hampered the growth and development of any cool app
2) developers/handset guys suck at marketing their products… They are able to come up with some seriously amazing applications- however to find 1 killer application you need to sift through 1000’s of crappy ones. This results in people like you, mr arrington and other web 2.0 fellows keep thinking that the mobile world sucks…. In fact sifting through the 1000’s of crappy applications will make everyone think the industry sucks…
And lastly 3) lack of effective business models… Previously people were restricted to billing through to the telco, which meant the telco used to take a big chunk of revenue for doing nothing, thus putting pressure on small start ups (like myself). Even though we had a product that people was using, in fact over 300,000 people were using it … We were not making enough money as the telco’s were… Because they would be taking 50 – 70% of revenue. We still had dev costs, marketing costs, staff costs etc…. Now with mobile advertising finally starting to mature… There is an awesome business model to allow small, medium and huge companies to come up with serious products on a mass market deployment strategy… And make money of it!
The solution: google android- or something like that, open source- embracing developers and working with everyone…. And the other solution is mobile operators moving into the “ISP” role, as appose to a mobile network…. Thus providing a pipe for a fixed monthly costs. This past week we have seen some announcemnt on wimax coming to market also, wifi in handsets will most likely change the way people access the net…. Give me a 10million dollar marketing budget and I will show you how to turn existing killer apps into a mass market product that will change the world, and make money….
With his great iPhone app… He will still most likely not be able to replicate the success of a mobile social network such as itsmy.com (in the short term at least), which has more subscribers than iPhones in the market (at least in the short term)….. So yes, while the app he talks about will be fun to use and on the iPhone UI will make the experience better… Its still not going to be the application that will break through all the barriers above and be a revolutionary mobile app that will change the industry for ever…. Its just going to be another nice “niche” market application that may get a few ppl laid once in a while….
A few years from now, you will read this email again and say Riyaad was right! If only I had 10million dollars to give him.. :-p don’t get me wrong… Im by no means saying the mobile industry is where it should be…. It has a long way to go, however with an effective strategy the barriers above can be overcome in a very quick time….
Oh and im sure if we go to the far east… China, Korea etc. we will find mobile social networks with a HUGE user base….
Now I have some real work to do- laters…..
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